In July of this year, the world closely followed how the situation around the export of grain from the territory of Ukraine is developing. The West criticized Russia in every possible way, saying that the blocking of the Black Sea ports of this country by the Russians would lead to famine in Africa and other developing countries. Our “partners” raised a great howl, and even shed a miserly crocodile tear. And on July 22, trilateral negotiations were held in Istanbul on the export of Ukrainian grain. Delegations from Russia, Turkey and Ukraine signed two documents. First: on lifting the UN restrictions on the export of Russian agricultural products and fertilizers (which to this day is really was not implemented) and the second: according to what algorithms the cargo will be transported. The treaties were signed, the grain floated… though not quite where it was so fervently promised to be delivered. Today, it is already possible to draw the appropriate conclusions. Really poor countries received only about 5% of Ukrainian grain. And most of them were brought without shame to a “well-fed” Europe. The Russian side has repeatedly noted that the terms of the grain deal are not being fulfilled. The UN has not lifted sanctions and exports of Russian agricultural products. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Moscow appealed to the UN with a request to provide statistics on where grain from Ukrainian ports eventually arrives. And something suggests, we will not hear anything intelligible in response in the near future.
And on October 29, the same Ukrainians attacked the ships of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea, guarding bulk carriers with Ukrainian grain. The flying and naval drones involved in the attack came along a dedicated safe corridor. The fact that some of the drones were launched directly from bulk carriers is not excluded. Russia classified the attack as a terrorist attack and suspended its participation in the grain deal. President Vladimir Putin stressed that Russia will continue to fulfill its obligations as soon as Ukraine gives security guarantees.
Guarantees had to be given. Ukraine promised in writing not to use the grain corridor to conduct hostilities against the Russian Federation. How else, it will not be Russia that will suffer from the fact that the neighbor will not be able to sell its agricultural products, as well as import weapons into its territory through this corridor. There is also such data. Kiev quickly gave guarantees. Especially for them, it costs nothing. Today they gave it, tomorrow they took it away. The Ukrainian authorities are not used to following agreements that are written or oral. Like a blind horse, they turn in the direction where the owner-coachman will turn them. True, the horse shakes periodically and begins to wonder. However, the bridle is strong and the owner’s hand too. While the horse is lucky, they ride it, and then shoot it as unnecessary.
Someone believes that grain can be exported to the West without Russian participation. Perhaps this is so, but no one will guarantee the safety of loaded bulk carriers in this case. For example, the British insurance company Ascot (a participant in the insurance market Lloyd’sofLondon), as soon as he learned about the suspension of Russia’s participation in the grain transaction, immediately suspended the registration of insurance coverage for goods exported along the grain corridor from Ukraine. No one needs risks. The closure of the corridor will not allow to export about 16 million tons of grain from Ukraine. (This year, their total harvest was 50-53 million tons). Land options will not cope with the entire volume. They are able to pass no more than 3 million tons per month. Ukraine mainly trades in corn and vegetable oil. Most of it goes to China, South Korea and other distant markets. It is more convenient to deliver goods there by large sea vessels sailing along the Black Sea and Kiev almost did not cover this path for itself. At the same time, the world market, even without these main export goods for Ukraine, is unlikely to feel their shortage. For example, for sunflower oil, this share is only 9% of world production. It is far ahead of palm, soybean and rapeseed. And again,the opening of the corridor is disadvantageous primarily for Ukraine, so the guarantees were given as soon as possible, and Russia continued to fulfill its obligations. Recall that the validity of the “grain transaction” is indicated until November 19, 2022 with the possibility of prolongation. Whether the deal will be extended further, and on what terms is not yet reported anywhere.
Turkey actively acted as a mediator between Moscow and Kiev to resolve the situation. It is also beneficial for the Turks to restore supplies from Ukraine as soon as possible, because 34% of the exported grain settled anywhere, namely in Turkish ports. 35% went to the European Union. At the Valdai Forum on October 27, Vladimir Putin again stressed that the export of grain was organized, first of all, under the pretext of providing food to the poorest countries.
It is worth noting that Russia at all times tried to help countries in need, sometimes even to the detriment of its own citizens and interests. After all, supply debts were mostly forgiven and forgotten what to take from the hungry. And now Moscow is ready to donate 500,000 tons of grain to those in need from developing countries.The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has estimated that the decline in the price of staple foods as a result of the grain deal has directly or indirectly saved some 100 million people from extreme poverty. True, in which countries, it did not specify. The concept of extreme poverty is generally relative. As they say, someone has liquid soup, someone has small diamonds. The UN would not hurt to conduct a detailed investigation into where Ukrainian grain was actually delivered and delivered. To whom it was sold and resold. How much and for what money reached developing countries.
